Presentation of the BP Energy Outlook, 2020 edition, a report based on three possible paths for the global energy transition

By JOSÉ ÁNGEL DE LA PAZ | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL

Possible paths for the development of the global energy landscape up to 2050 were addressed by industry experts during the presentation of the 2020 edition of the BP Energy Outlook, in the framework of the EGADE Future Forum series.

In the webinar “Three scenarios to explore the future of energy,” Jorge Blazquez, Lead Economist for Power Renewable Energy and Carbon Markets at BP, and Rolando Fuentes, Research Professor at EGADE Business School, explored the energy transition through the three main scenarios presented in the BP report:

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• ​Rapid: This first scenario assumes the introduction of political measures which would result in a 70% decline in emissions derived from energy use by 2050. It corresponds to limiting the increase in global temperatures with respect to pre-industrial levels to well below 2ºC for 2100.
   
• Net Zero: This second scenario assumes that the policy measures introduced in the Rapid scenario are reinforced by significant changes in consumer and social behavior and preferences, such as an increased adoption of circular and collaborative economies and a shift to low-carbon energy sources, thus reducing carbon emissions from energy use by 95% by 2050. It corresponds to limiting the increase in global temperatures with respect to pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC for 2100.
   
• Business-as-usual or BAU: This third scenario assumes that government policies, technologies and social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and at a speed similar to the recent past. Thus, carbon emissions derived from energy use would reach their highest level in the mid-2020s, not decreasing significantly, but rather representing a reduction in emissions in 2050 of less than 10% compared to 2018 levels.

"This presentation is important not only because the energy sector is key in business, but also because the focus of this report is the energy transition and this is precisely what we at EGADE are interested in: innovation, technology, new business models and strategy,” highlighted Fuentes.

The entire webinar can be viewed here.