The podcast of EGADE Business School and the School of Business at Tecnológico de Monterrey is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and YouTube.

By JOSÉ ÁNGEL DE LA PAZ | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL

Amid a climate of economic and political uncertainty, the beginning of Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States marks a turning point in the bilateral relationship with Mexico.

In episode 189 of the podcast Territorio Negocios, "Trump 2.0: What Awaits Mexico?" Jorge Velarde, professor of Economics and Finance at EGADE Business School, analyzes possible scenarios and their impact on the Mexican economy.

Eva Guerra, the Associate Academic Dean of EGADE Business School, hosts the episode, which covers key topics such as tariffs, the T-MEC renegotiation, deglobalization, and its impact on Mexico's key economic sectors.

One of the main discussion topics was the potential imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, a strategy Trump has previously used with other countries.

"We all know Trump's negotiation style. His strategy is to apply pressure so businesses and countries make decisions in the direction he wants," explained Velarde.

The professor cited the recent case of Colombia: "Trump imposed a 25% tariff and suspended the issuance of visas for Colombians. The Colombian government reacted within hours, and the tariffs were lifted."

For Velarde, this episode illustrates the kind of pressure that could be applied to Mexico on issues such as migration and trade.

Velarde also addressed the phenomenon of deglobalization promoted by Trump.

"Tariffs impact global trade and contribute to a process of deglobalization, where countries affected by these measures also take similar actions," he noted.

According to the expert, these policies could particularly affect Mexican SMEs, which depend on exports for their growth.

"The increase in production costs and the reduction in profit margins could lead to a rise in prices for the final consumer and lower competitiveness for national companies," he warned.

Another key topic Velarde addressed was the T-MEC renegotiation, scheduled for 2026.

"This is one of Trump’s main opportunities to apply pressure and gain advantages for the U.S. economy. If he fails to impose his conditions in this renegotiation, he would have to wait until 2036 to do so," he highlighted.

In this context, sectors such as energy, manufacturing, intellectual property, and e-commerce will be key areas of tension in the negotiations.

Velarde explained that if tariffs were imposed on 85% of Mexican exports, which is the percentage of exports that go to the United States, this could impact up to 30% of Mexico’s GDP.

Nearshoring, which has been a competitive advantage for Mexico in recent years, could also be affected.

"Trump seeks the relocation of companies, but within the United States. He has lowered taxes and penalized companies that produce outside the country," explained Velarde.

Although Mexico continues to attract investment, its growth rate has slowed.

"We compete with other countries, such as Indonesia, Taiwan, India, and Vietnam, which have also attracted investments that could have gone to Mexico," he stated.

The country must improve logistics, workforce training, and bureaucratic simplification to remain attractive.

Faced with this uncertain scenario, Velarde emphasized the importance of strategic management.

"Companies should seek to optimize costs, diversify suppliers, and hedge against currency volatility," he recommended.

He also suggested that decisions be based on data and alternative scenarios: "It is better to have a Plan A, B, and C than to make hasty decisions that they may regret in the medium term."

Episode 189 of Territorio Negocios is now available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and YouTube.