The podcast by EGADE Business School and the School of Business at Tecnológico de Monterrey is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and YouTube.
By JOSÉ ÁNGEL DE LA PAZ | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL
Amid the uncertainty surrounding Unites States trade policy, the latest episode of Territorio Negocios, the podcast by EGADE Business School and the School of Business at Tecnológico de Monterrey, explores the impact of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports.
Episode 195, "Mexico and Tariffs: Adapt or Resist," is hosted by Eva Guerra, associate dean of EGADE Business School, and features Eduardo Saucedo, director of the Department of Finance and Business Economics at EGADE Business School.
Although the implementation of tariffs on Mexico has been postponed until April 2, former US President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade agenda remains a looming threat, potentially impacting Mexican businesses significantly.
In the episode, Saucedo explains that tariffs function as a tax that raises the cost of Mexican exports and aims to protect US industries. However, these measures have historically not proven effective in the medium or long term.
"Part of the tariff burden will be absorbed by US consumers and part by Mexican producers. However, in sectors with few competitors—such as avocados or certain medical products—the cost will be passed on more directly to US buyers," Saucedo explains.
The expert also highlights the potential consequences of these measures for key sectors of the Mexican economy. For example, manufacturing accounts for approximately 20% of the national GDP, and imposing a 25% tariff on these products would hurt the competitiveness of Mexican businesses, pushing US buyers to seek alternatives in other markets, such as Brazil or Asia.
The impact of tariffs would affect export costs and disrupt supply chains, particularly in northern Mexico, where more than 55% of Mexican exports to the United States originate.
Saucedo explains that while 90% of Mexican exports are protected under the USMCA, 10-12% of products are not covered and could be subject to these new tariffs. He believes a trade war between Mexico and the US is unlikely, as both economies are deeply interconnected, and escalating tariffs would hurt both sides.
"The US currently has very low unemployment and controlled inflation. If tariffs raise the cost of imports, they could trigger inflation and weaken the competitiveness of the U.S. economy itself, limiting their effectiveness as a protectionist measure," he warns.
In this context, the Mexican government’s recently announced Plan Mexico aims to attract investment and strengthen industrial infrastructure. However, trade uncertainty makes it difficult for businesses to make decisions, delaying strategic projects.
To learn more about this analysis, the episode "Mexico and Tariffs: Adapt or Resist" is now available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and YouTube.
Territorio Negocios is the podcast by EGADE Business School and the Business School at Tecnológico de Monterrey, where experts analyze key business trends and transformations.