Former Deputy Governor Everardo Elizondo believes that, although inflation has decreased, it remains far from the 3% target, and Banco de México's monetary policy has not been restrictive enough.
By JOSÉ ÁNGEL DE LA PAZ | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL
On January 23, Monterrey hosted the first session of “Mexico's Economic and Political Outlook for 2025,” organized by EGADE Business School and the School of Government and Public Transformation (EGyTP by its acronym in Spanish) of Tecnológico de Monterrey.
This series, part of EGADE Business School’s 30th anniversary celebration, will continue with upcoming editions in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Querétaro.
In her welcome address, Eva Guerra, Associate Dean of EGADE Business School, highlighted the significance of the current context for Mexico and the United States, which is marked by the start of Claudia Sheinbaum's and Donald Trump's presidential terms.
“This context calls for us to assess scenarios, analyze trends, reflect on the challenges that may arise in this increasingly complex and competitive global environment, and identify the opportunities that emerge from strategic cooperation, innovation, and long-term vision,” Guerra said.
ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
The event featured Everardo Elizondo, former Deputy Governor of Banco de México and Distinguished Professor of Economics at EGADE Business School, who delivered the keynote address, "Mexico's Economy: Past and Future—Preliminary Conjectures."
Elizondo emphasized that Mexico's economy struggles with weak investment, stating that “physical investment, human capital, and technology are not receiving the attention needed to drive economic growth.”
“There isn’t enough investment in Mexico,” he stressed, pointing out that most investment comes from the private sector while public investment remains historically low.
Additionally, he highlighted that foreign trade remains a strength due to Mexico’s relationship with the United States, but he warned about the risks of potential tariffs under the Trump administration.
“The threat of Trump-era tariffs remains unclear, but they will certainly have significant repercussions,” he said.
Regarding inflation, Elizondo noted that while rates show a downward trend, they remain far from the 3% target.
“There’s a difference between inflation declining and prices actually decreasing,” he clarified.
He also criticized Banco de México’s monetary policy for not being restrictive enough to combat inflation.
Elizondo predicted that, depending on inflation trends, interest rates could drop to around 8% by the end of the year.
Elizondo reflected on the challenging outlook: “We’re facing a year of limited growth, with inflation unlikely to hit the 3% target.”
PANEL OF EXPERTS
The event also featured a panel discussion with Jorge Martínez, Professor of Economics and Finance at EGADE Business School; Ernesto Stein, former BID representative in Mexico and Distinguished Professor of Public Policy at EGyTP; Cecilia Carrillo, Director General of COPARMEX Nuevo León; and Alejandro Díaz, a researcher at EGyTP.
Martínez described the current situation as a "mosaic of storms" characterized by global populism, a strengthening dollar, and trade tensions.
“In the darkest moments, great transformations are born. Mexico has the talent and creativity to turn storms into new opportunities,” Martínez said.
Stein highlighted the impact of nearshoring as a competitive advantage for Mexico but cautioned: “There is no single Mexico in nearshoring. The north is advancing, but the south faces structural challenges that limit its participation.”
Carrillo addressed the challenges SMEs face, pointing out that “economic uncertainty affects companies unevenly, and regulations don’t always translate into tangible benefits.” She also noted the lack of skilled labour in the North and talent migration issues in the South.
Díaz discussed populism as a divisive phenomenon: “Populism is not a sustainable model; its divisive rhetoric creates gaps between elites and the population, making it difficult to build long-term consensus.”
The event concluded with remarks from Miguel Treviño de Hoyos, Director of the Monterrey site of EGyTP.
The “Mexico's Economic and Political Outlook for 2025” series will continue on January 27 in Mexico City, January 29 in Guadalajara, and January 31 in Querétaro.