By JOSÉ ÁNGEL DE LA PAZ | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL
The start of 2026 points to a more volatile economic environment for Mexico, with expected growth slightly above 1% and business decisions increasingly shaped by the USMCA review and by variables such as inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate.
This was highlighted by Jorge Velarde, professor in the Department of Finance and Business Economics at EGADE Business School of Tecnológico de Monterrey, during his guest appearance on episode 230 of Territorio Negocios, hosted by Alicia Galindo, national director of the Master in Finance at EGADE Business School.
Velarde explained that moderate growth is a global trend. “Global growth is expected to be around 3.1 or 3.2%. In the case of Mexico, growth is expected to be just above 1%,” he said, noting that these projections are typically adjusted as the year progresses.
From his perspective, Mexico's economic growth could be strengthened by three main drivers. The first is consumption, linked to purchasing power and productivity. “Strengthening purchasing power through a wage policy tied to productivity encourages economic activity in a healthier way,” he stated, while also stressing the importance of responsible financial education.
The second driver is business investment, particularly in innovation and digitalization. Despite uncertainty, Velarde argued that “one way to boost the economy is to continue investing, especially in innovation and digitalization, and to diversify markets.”
The third element relates to the USMCA review. On this point, he ruled out a cancellation scenario. “The reality is that I do not see a shutdown of the USMCA. I believe continuity is guaranteed,” he said. However, he warned that scenarios involving annual reviews would increase uncertainty and complicate long-term planning.
Regarding the macroeconomic outlook, the professor from EGADE Business School expects inflation to remain within the central bank’s target range, with possible seasonal upticks early in the year. “There may be some spikes in January and February, but I don’t think inflation will move outside the annual range,” he noted. As for the exchange rate, he cautioned that it will be the variable most sensitive to trade negotiations. “We could move within ranges close to 19.7, with volatility spikes, which is why it’s important not to make rushed decisions,” he advised.
Velarde also pointed to investment opportunities linked to the 2026 World Cup, particularly in sectors such as infrastructure, tourism, and hospitality. “Everything related to infrastructure, airports, hotels, and event-related consumption will see an increase in income levels,” he said.
To conclude, he shared three recommendations for companies in 2026: continue investing to strengthen competitiveness, manage currency hedging, and protect liquidity. “It’s not that a crisis is coming, but we will face periods of volatility. This is the time to prepare and maintain reserves in order to respond appropriately,” he concluded.
This episode was the first of 2026 and marked the start of Season 12 of Territorio Negocios, which releases a new episode every Tuesday on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and YouTube.
