By ISABELLA CASTAÑEDA RODRÍGUEZ | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL
The Economic Package 2026 presents a challenging scenario for Mexico, with optimistic growth projections, an increase in public debt, and pressures on social spending and infrastructure.
In this episode of Territorio Negocios, hosted by Pablo Necoechea, Regional Director of EGADE Business School in Mexico City and Querétaro, participants included Jorge Velarde, professor in the Department of Finance and Business Economics at EGADE Business School, and Julio Ruiz, Chief Economist at Citi for Mexico.
“The percentage of around 52.3% projected in the budget for public debt has already surpassed the 50% benchmark measured internationally,” noted Velarde, warning that “it remains a point of risk for the Mexican economy.”
Ruiz, for his part, pointed out that the Ministry of Finance estimates an economic growth of 2.3%, while the analysts’ consensus places it at 1.4%. This difference “could create a shortfall in tax revenue of around 0.14% of GDP,” he said.
Regarding external risks, he also indicated that the future of Mexico–U.S. trade policy and the economic slowdown in the United States are the main sources of uncertainty likely to impact investment.
Velarde added that exchange rate fluctuations may reduce revenues for exporters, and a slowdown in the United States would likely decrease remittances and domestic consumption in Mexico.
As for signals for businesses, he suggested that companies anticipate volatility and optimize liquidity, while in the long term focusing on strategic investments in technology and automation to achieve greater efficiency and productivity.
Ruiz highlighted the importance of the USMCA renegotiation, noting that “it will likely focus on limiting Chinese trade flows through Mexico. We are already seeing this reflected in the tariffs included in the budget.”
The episode concluded with practical recommendations. Velarde warned that companies should get used to uncertainty, monitor domestic consumption, and track geopolitical factors that impact energy and input costs.
This and more episodes of Territorio Negocios are available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and YouTube.
