By INSTITUTIONAL COMMUNICATIONS | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL
In an international environment marked by geopolitical and trade volatility, EGADE Business School and the School of Government and Public Transformation of Tecnológico de Monterrey presented on January 15 the Mexico City edition of the forum “Mexico’s Economic and Political Outlook 2026”, a space for analysis of the challenges and opportunities that will shape the country’s trajectory this year.
The session was opened by Horacio Arredondo, Dean of EGADE Business School, who also moderated a business panel featuring key voices from the private sector to discuss the factors that will influence productivity, investment, and national competitiveness.
During the discussion, Silvia Dávila, President of Danone for Latin America, and Gerardo Aparicio, Director of Financial Education at Grupo Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, agreed on the importance of maintaining a realistic, disciplined outlook amid a challenging economic environment.
Dávila emphasized that “the key is to focus on the variables we can actually control: understanding the consumer, eliminating waste, and innovating constantly.”
Both panelists highlighted the need to strengthen productivity, operational efficiency, and innovation, as well as to seize the opportunities offered by capital markets in a context of gradual recovery.
THE CHALLENGE FOR SMEs: SCALE, PRODUCTIVITY, AND FINANCING
In the context of small and medium-sized enterprises, Valeria Moy, Managing Director of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), noted that one of the main obstacles to their integration into global value chains is the lack of scale.
Moy argued that support for SMEs should not be based on condescension, but rather on growth.
“The way to help SMEs is for them to stop being SMEs and be able to grow and increase their productivity,” she stated.
She added that collaboration between large and mid-sized companies, learning from best practices, and access to financing are key elements to achieving this goal. She also warned that doing business in Mexico remains complex due to the regulatory burden.
“If it is complicated for large companies, it is much more so for small ones,” she said.
Aparicio agreed that many SMEs operate on a day-to-day basis, making them vulnerable to external shocks. Indirectly, he explained that financing schemes are insufficient without rigorous investment evaluations and a long-term vision.
He also stressed that governance is a determining factor in the sustainable growth of family-owned and mid-sized companies.
“Strengthening governance in companies increases the likelihood that they will grow at a faster pace,” he said, noting that cases of SMEs becoming large corporations are exceptional, both in Mexico and globally.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: GRADUAL ADOPTION WITH A FOCUS ON PRODUCTIVITY
The panel also addressed the challenges associated with artificial intelligence. Aparicio warned that its adoption is neither immediate nor free, and that it must be linked to clearly defined productivity projects.
“You can’t just add a layer of technology on top without generating real value; it has to be accompanied by clear indicators,” he explained, while also warning about implementation and depreciation costs from day one.
Arredondo underscored that this forum is part of both schools’ commitment to promoting spaces for strategic reflection that connect academia with the business sector and public policy.
“From EGADE Business School, we promote informed analysis and cross-sector collaboration as a foundation for building a more competitive, sustainable, and inclusive Mexico,” the Dean concluded.
MEXICO: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND U.S. TRADE POLICY
The forum also featured the keynote lecture “Mexico: Economic Outlook, Challenges, and Opportunities of United States Trade Policy”, delivered by Ernesto Stein, professor at the School of Government and Public Transformation and former representative of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in Mexico.
Stein warned that the global economy is in a slowdown that began in 2025 and is expected to continue into 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook.
He attributed this environment to rising geopolitical risk and instability in trade policy. “In April 2025, when Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on Mexico, uncertainty levels reached historic highs, even above those seen during the pandemic. If one looks at the levels after what happened with Venezuela, they would likely be even higher,” he said.
Another determining factor, he added, will be the U.S. midterm elections, which could alter the balance of power in Congress and introduce new checks and balances for President Trump.
Stein also noted that Mexico’s growth has been supported by exports, an unexpected outcome given the United States' tariffs. “This new cycle of global value chain reconfiguration has the potential to be more powerful for Mexico than the previous cycle,” he said. The tariff differential with Asia—excluding China—and the rules of the USMCA could incentivize greater compliance with regional content requirements, opening space for more Mexican SMEs to join these chains.
In this context, the renegotiation of the USMCA will be key to defining the economic outlook. Mexico is seeking to strengthen its position through cooperation on security, migration control, and trade; however, Stein warned that imposing tariffs on countries such as China under the “most-favored-nation” principle could hinder investment from economies like South Korea and Taiwan in strategic sectors, including automotive and semiconductors.
Finally, Stein emphasized that Mexico has a significant opportunity in the surge of artificial intelligence investment in the United States, particularly in technological infrastructure such as servers and data centers. In this area, computer equipment and parts doubled their share of U.S. imports, while Mexico increased its participation to 28.4%.
The Monterrey edition of the forum “Mexico’s Economic and Political Outlook 2026” was held on November 27, while the Querétaro and Guadalajara editions will take place on January 20 and 22, respectively.
