Outlook 2026: Mexico Faces a Decisive Opportunity to Accelerate Its Development, Leaders Agree at EGADE

By JOSÉ ÁNGEL DE LA PAZ | EGADE BUSINESS SCHOOL

Mexico is at a turning point. Although economic growth is expected to remain moderate, the country—and particularly the state of Nuevo León—faces a unique opportunity to accelerate its development by strengthening its electric and digital infrastructure, training specialized talent, fostering innovation, and boosting local supply chains.

These were the main takeaways from the “Economic and Political Outlook for Mexico 2026” event, held on November 27 and co-organized by EGADE Business School and the School of Government and Public Transformation at Tecnológico de Monterrey. Leaders from academia, government, and the private sector agreed that fully leveraging nearshoring and North American integration will require a more effective alliance among the public sector, businesses, and academia.

In a panel discussion, Betsabé Rocha, Secretary of Economy of Nuevo León, emphasized that the state's momentum is not a result of recent circumstances, but rather the product of a long-standing economic model.

This model, she explained, is built on innovation, the integration of local suppliers, and the development of industrial clusters, which have made Nuevo León a national leader in growth.

Rocha warned that in light of global uncertainty and potential new tariffs, an urgent task is to prepare and connect SMEs as competitive suppliers—in terms of timing, quality, and service—and to take advantage of the 2026 World Cup as an opportunity to showcase Nuevo León’s productive capacity and its cosmopolitan, industrial identity.

“We have a great opportunity—but also a great responsibility—to reconnect, develop suppliers, and foster cross-sector collaboration. The World Cup is the perfect excuse to show the world that Nuevo León knows how to work as a team for the benefit of the state and of Mexico,” Rocha said.

Clelia Hernández, General Director of Nuevo León 4.0, emphasized that in an era of accelerating global investment in Industry 4.0 and robotics, Nuevo León enjoys a privileged position thanks to its industrial and academic ecosystems. However, it still faces critical talent gaps in AI, data analytics, and machine learning, as well as increasing cybersecurity risks.

She highlighted the upcoming 5G spectrum auction in 2026 and semiconductor initiatives as strategic opportunities, provided the country improves telecom infrastructure and connectivity, and increases cross-sector collaboration to train talent and reduce gaps—including gender disparities in STEM careers.

“Nuevo León has the potential not only to be a user, but also an exporter of AI solutions. But to achieve this, we need infrastructure, connectivity, specialized talent, and much stronger coordination between universities, government, and companies. Otherwise, we’ll miss this opportunity,” Hernández stated.

Horacio Arredondo, Dean of EGADE Business School and panel moderator, underscored that Mexico’s economic future hinges on electric infrastructure. He noted that if Mexico truly aims to be a strategic partner for the U.S. in AI and emerging technologies, it must make bold investments in power generation—and especially transmission.

“If we really want to ride the AI wave and become a strategic partner to the U.S., we must invest heavily in electric infrastructure,” Arredondo emphasized.

From a business perspective, Roger González Lau, CEO of Protexa, argued that although Mexico’s 2026 outlook is relatively positive—with expected growth of 1% to 1.5% and a more challenging first half of the year—the country should not settle for modest figures of 0% to 2%.

He stressed that with its proximity to the U.S., demographic dividend, and the combined energy potential of Canada, the U.S., and Mexico—including gas, oil, wind, solar, and hydropower—North America is well-positioned to become one of the world’s strongest energy regions.

He also warned about the growing presence of Chinese firms using Mexico as a platform to access the U.S. market, which could displace local manufacturing if no clear strategy is put in place.

“To me, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico already are—or should be—the most powerful energy region in the world. Water, wind, sun, oil, gas—you name it. We have all the fundamentals. We need to leverage them better,” González Lau said.

Before the panel, Miguel Ángel Santos, Dean of the School of Government and Public Transformation, gave the keynote “Mexico: Economic Outlook 2026 or the Syndrome of Eternal Potential.” He explained that after a projected slowdown in 2025—with growth around 0.6%, driven by investment uncertainty—Mexico could rebound to its historical 1.5% rate in 2026.

He forecasted two contrasting halves of the year: the first marked by the USMCA renegotiation, and the second by a recovery in investment, consumption, and inventories, assuming the agreement concludes favorably. He also projected stable inflation around 3.6%-3.8%, relatively high real interest rates, and a more gradual-than-expected fiscal adjustment that would slightly raise the debt-to-GDP ratio without threatening Mexico’s investment-grade status.

“Mexico has what it takes to grow beyond that historical 1.5%—it truly does! But to realize this potential, we need a strong alliance between the private sector, government, and academia that can move swiftly and surgically to identify and unlock opportunities while crafting policies that remove barriers and activate growth,” he concluded.

The event “Economic and Political Outlook for Mexico 2026” will continue with upcoming editions on January 15 in Mexico City, January 20 in Querétaro, and January 22 in Guadalajara.